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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Salah Mohamed who wrote (5640)12/7/1996 6:34:00 AM
From: Ghassan I. Ghandour   of 42771
 
Last year, USS came up with an earning report which was a great improvement (over 100%) on the same period the year before as well as the previous quarter. The stock had run up to 26 in anticipation. Morgan Stanly's analyst upgraded the stock in the morning immediatly after earning release, only to turn around and downgrade it in the same afternoon on the pretention that the numbers shown by the company were inflated by some currency effect. After reaching 27 plus that day the stock closed down for the day and it kept going down untill it even dipped below 20 during a market correction. What happened later was that the company kept improving earnings sequentially and, even Morgan Stanly's analyst was forced to become bullish on the stock. The stock trades now around 40. All people who dumped their stocks in the 20's because of Morgan Stanly's recommendation (or lack of) were hurt. Do MS's analysts ever learn, or better yet, do people who follow them ever learn. Another example is MS very bullish on DEC as the stock was trading at 70 or above. Many other analysts that belonged to Prudential or Goldman S. or others were also bullish. Only Bear Stearn I believe were cautious as the stock exceeded their target of 50. The stock had a big plunge, as most people here undoubtedaly know and it trades today under 40 (up from under 30). So much for MS and other analysts. Unfortunatly, many in the market follow their analysis and recommendations. IMO they should be considered as contrarian indicator for long term investing. Ghassan.
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