The performance differences aren't than pronounced when comparing a new COM based application with a new Java application. The performance gap is generally in reference to older C applications written to the Windows SDK and tweaked over the last several years or so. The performance issues will be addressed but not at the cost of an unstable, insecure environment which is precisely what you get with Microsoft's COM. Writing COM based applications in anything other the Visual Basic is an order of magnitude more complex than the Java equivalent due to COM's poor design -- despite several complete rewrites, and another one is in the works. Code reuse is almost non-existent in Micorosoft's COM architecture.COM is clearly inferior, as is Visual Basic, but it will take more than better technology to topple Microsoft. I think we have that in the NOISE consortium plus half a million or so Java developers sick of MSFT hacks. Windows OLE architecture was a total flop outside the company, but ActiveX is catching on.
Java is a general purpose programming language combined with machine independent, safe, secure, object-oriented APIs. Sorry, but products like the eSuite from Lotus Development are going to have a major impact. Instead of having boat-anchors of ever conceivable configuration a hotel, say, can now deploy Java stations running any of the thousands of applications currently under development. It takes time to write software, all of the buzz you have been hearing will soon burst into a flurry of software releases.
One more point about speed. Forget about just-in-time compilers, caching and the rest of it -- it's a given that they can wring far more speed, transparently, with a variety of elegant solutions. Consider the fact that there is no reason why you can't compile Java into native code when and where it makes sense to do so? Moreover, you loose nothing in terms of portability if you think about it: just update your system with Java bytecode or download the native compilation if that's what you want. Microsoft Office brings systems to their knees, and that's interesting since for the most part all it does is sit there and wait for you to input something. Java is NOT just a language and performance is NOT as big an issue as Microsoft would have you think. Actually, Microsoft would rather have you not think, that's the problem. They would rather let the greasy little hackers who put COM together to do the thinking for you once they have completed their earn-while-you-learn experiment.
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