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Strategies & Market Trends : News Links and Chart Links
SPXL 224.48+0.4%Dec 5 4:00 PM EST
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To: Softechie who wrote (5651)2/10/2003 11:12:51 PM
From: Softechie   of 29601
 
More Rallies Will Crumble Before War Breaks Out
By James J. Cramer
02/10/2003 15:25
There goes the U-2 rally , just like the "Saddam exile" rally and the "Saddam agrees to inspectors" rally. These all are sham rallies that lead to disappointment that leads to going back to near the summer lows that lead to the real rally that begins when war begins because by that time, we would be so exhausted from all the faux rallies that no one would believe there could be a real one.

I know that I harp on this 1990 analogy endlessly, but that's because there were so many false rallies in 1990 that people then, too, were quite bearish and the market was quite cheap.

There's lots of talk these days about how this time it is different because of terrorism, but at that time we had lots of people who believed that with or without war, Citigroup and Chase and Chemical and Manufacturers Hanover all were going to go out of business from bad real estate.

Understand that this move, this fake-out, like the next two or three fake-outs, really will raise the level of pessimism. By the time the actual war begins, pessimism will be at a much higher level as we shake out all of those who felt they had to be "in" for the war.

When will war begin? I think it's beginning to look like a March 1 proposition after at least two more of these fake-outs.

Be ready. Steel yourself. We aren't there yet. More disappointment ahead.
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