Dem front-runners face urgent choices
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By: Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei
January 9, 2008 09:43 PM EST
The Politico
As they confront the prospect of competing in 25 states in the next 27 days, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama face urgent strategic choices over message, money, and time.
Obama boasted that he is ready for "rough and tumble" tactics but it's unclear how tough he can get without positioning himself as a conventional politician and undermining his own appeal as unifying figure.
"I think that Senator Clinton obviously, is a formidable and tough candidate, and we have to make sure that we take it to them just like they take it to us," he said on the day after his New Hampshire loss.
Clinton faces her own calculation about how to modulate her campaign's tone. After attacking Obama's rhetoric as fluff, her advisers believe that it was her briefly choking up on national TV that finally humanized and softened her image. It's not clear her efforts to open up, with voters and the press, can be sustained.
Both campaigns are working a high-stakes Rubik's Cube as they calculate the deployment of staff, advertising and candidate time in the complex map they face in this four-week rush.
"This crazy schedule, I mean, honest to goodness, it's the closest thing to insanity that I've seen in politics," Clinton told Fox News Channel from her home in Chappaqua, N.Y.
Obama needs to regain his momentum with strong finishes on Jan. 19 in Nevada, where he won a crucial union endorsement on Wednesday, and on Jan. 26 in South Carolina, where a heavy African-American vote gives him a built-in advantage.
Clinton is conceding nothing in those states but believes she can seal her claim to the Democratic presidential nomination on Feb. 5, when the giant states of New York, California and New Jersey vote, along with the Clinton-friendly state of Arkansas.
Clinton and her husband, Bill Clinton, stopped by the campaign headquarters in suburban Arlington, Va., on Wednesday to thank the staff for her surprise showing in the New Hampshire primary, where she had been preparing for a rout. She made no public appearances, but looked cheery in a round of morning and network television interviews.
Both campaigns are in a desperate scramble for money to fund the costly contests ahead. Like Clinton, Obama raised money in New York City on Wednesday, and will do a fund-raiser in Chicago on Thursday after a campaign stop at the College of Charleston, in South Carolina.
Obama made a campaign stop Wednesday in Jersey City, N.J., where the crowd was so huge that he made initial remarks to roughly 2,000 supporters waiting outside before he went inside to the main podium.
"My voice is a little hoarse, my eyes are a little bleary, my back is sore," he began. "But my spirits are strong."
Obama's campaign said that by Friday, he'll have staff in each of the 22 states with Democratic contests on Feb. 5, a delegate feast so rich the day is being called Tsunami Tuesday or Super-Duper Tuesday.
"We're feeling feisty," said Bill Burton, his national press secretary.
Every state matters. In addition to longtime offices in the mega-states, Clinton already has operations up and running in Colorado, Missouri, Minnesota, Massachusetts and Georgia. Staff is dropping into Arizona this week, and he'll have a press person and other staff in Alabama by this weekend.
As Clinton and Obama look ahead to those contests, both face more than mere stylistic choices. With the race wide open - and contests in South Carolina and Nevada fast approaching - the two will make a series of strategic decisions that will dictate how the next month will unfold and likely who wins the nomination.
Democratic strategists say Clinton is going to be pragmatic and methodical, focusing on women and older voters and states where she has institutional advantages because the primaries are closed to independents.
Obama will continue trying to expand what he calls his "coalition for change" by pouring resources into turning out new voters and younger voters
Clinton says she will compete in South Carolina and Nevada but her advisers concede Feb. 5 might offer the best hope for big victories. She is most optimistic about her chances in states that do not allow independents to vote (they strongly favored Obama in Iowa and New Hampshire) and where she enjoys strong support, especially among women. New York and California are atop that list.
Obama plans a forceful fight for South Carolina, where African Americans are expected to account for half the Democratic vote, and Nevada, where he picked up the very influential endorsement of the Culinary Workers of America. But Obama is also moving resources to key Feb. 5 states, including California. His home state of Illinois also votes on Feb. 5.
David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, said in a memo sent to reporters the Illinois senator is targeting colleges and universities and "pursuing support from independent voters aggressively where they are permitted to participate." California and New Jersey are among the states permitting independents to vote in their Democratic primaries.
The trick for both politicians is to prove they can grow and broaden their support not simply lock down groups they captured in the first two states. Obama must do better with Democratic partisans to win caucuses and primaries. Clinton must do better with independents to prove to Democrats she can win a general election.
The top order of business yesterday was to send signals to activists and donors that momentum is on their side. Stealing a trick from the Clinton campaign, someone leaked word to the Drudge Report early in the day that Obama had raised $8 million in the first 8 days of January. The reason: the site is very well read, especially by the news media, and it's a good way to generate buzz and drive the political conversation.
Shortly after, the Plouffe memo was distributed more broadly and detailed what he called Obama's clear fundraising strength. He said Obama raised $23.5 million in the fourth quarter, all but $1 million of which is available for use in the primary election.
Not to be outdone, Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe said his boss had raised $750,000 online since the New Hampshire victory. He said the campaign has between $25 million and $27 million on hand right now. It was hitting up big donors throughout the day and cautioning wavering supporters to stick with Clinton - a message that would have been much harder to sell had she lost the first two contests.
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