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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Shane M who wrote (56549)1/3/2016 8:08:19 PM
From: Graham Osborn   of 78911
 
The best time for selling into rallies was Q1 2015, when everyone thought it was 2009 all over again. Now the rallies take but a breath to die. We need a real fundamental M&A wave to rejuvate the hope and I believe that just starting to kindle now. One of TGA's (my fave) majority shareholders just issued an "ultimatum" for a significant buyback above what was previously announced plus management ownership. That's what I'd like to see - not all these foolish blue chip buybacks out of debt financings to appease "long term" activists.

But to your point - yes oil is still in a bear market and if you choose to trade it you will have to be willing to feed the brokers. If you want a fundamental argument, probably at least 3-5 years of low prices are needed for the leveraged producers to fully asphyxiated and the capital markets to dry up fully. Oh Rockefeller where are thou?

Graham
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