The $20B number for 2005 comes from AMAT and Lehman. On a number of occasions, I have predicted $12B for 2005. I think $20B will wait until 2007-8. The next move up will not start accelerating until at least 2003.
I agree that we have had a huge bubble and that sales levels in technology were unrealistically high. It looks like it will take a good 2 years for technology markets to find a sales base at much lower levels. I am not postulating another bubble, but I think that technology growth from the post bubble base will surprise everyone with its historically high rate and persistence.
The last bubble was primarily driven by an internet software mania, dot-coms, BTB, internet infrastructure, etc. Software isn't technology and software has contributed very little to technological innovation. Software is just the means to derive practical solutions from hardware capabilities. During the bubble, the dollars thrown at any internet software venture caused distortions in hardware development and purchases.
I truly believe that the current PC and internet are the Model Ts on the technology roadmap. Fundamental technology which will provide huge increases in processing power, storage capacity and bandwidth, and huge decreases in size, cost, and power consumption, will create a ubiquitous wireless network which will intelligently connect all elements of our society and culture. The chip content of our world will soar and the value added by these chips will be beyond our imagination, today.
I will not pick a number such as $192.50 and not adjust it as I see things unfold. I understand your $70 target. My $12B got me $60-90 if I remember correctly. I can't see the future any better than anyone else, but I believe that we will get upside surprises. |
