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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread
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To: squetch who wrote (563)5/14/1997 10:38:00 PM
From: Rocketman   of 9719
 
Yeah the name calling gets pretty childish. It's amazing how well the sports analogies work on here to calm people down.

So, re: CEPH: did you stay or did you go??? Myself, I would have held onto the shares as I still think they have a very good chance of getting approval yet from the FDA. After I read the BioCentury article, and they discussed how FDA's Temple is the decision maker and how he mitigated the naysayers on the committee, I thought that CEPH's odds are better than 50:50 for a conditional marketing approval with a series of P4 clinicals, both with and without Rilutek. If I see a nice rally in the next month or so, and free up some margin $, I'll consider taking a small CEPH position before the FDA makes a final call. Don't beat yourself up too badly, being a venture capitalist is tough, and you are guaranteed to pick some that don't make it. I'm don't know of anything that would have tipped the scales to make it clear that the FDA will reject this drug, and in fact, that committee meeting might mean nothing and present a buying opportunity. Of course, this cat could turn into a dog and die a fast death if the FDA says NO. These kinds of situations are why you want some diversity in your biotech portfolio and should have 10 or 15 different issues so that no single one will burn you too badly when it craps out.

Rman
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