Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 295.83

+4.1%

Jan 6 3:59 PM EST

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To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (56682)	11/30/2001 1:57:36 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	of 70976

RE: "...perhaps statements that rotten business will continue longer than expected will do it..." Rotten business has already persisted longer than most expectations. Remember, recovery was going to occur in H2 2001, Q4 2001, H1 2002, and, now, H2 2002. In all these cases, recovery was/is still 6 months or less out and prices continue(d) way above historical valuations. The signs for a recovery, now, are the strongest since the bubble burst and the downturn began. Consumer spending will be supported by falling interest rates and layoffs are in their 4th quarter. I think that there is a foundation for high tech stock prices. It is the growing acknowledgement in the Wall St and Main St communities that technology is the future. Valuations got way out of hand during the bubble and should serve as a red flag, now, but prices don't want to fall. The most obvious lesson of the post 9/11 market is that quality semi and semi-equip companies are in pretty strong hands.

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