Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.28

-1.0%

Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Return to Sender who wrote (5661)	9/27/2002 9:39:41 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) of 95526

Generally agree for the SCE group. Next year looks bleak. For a while this year utilization rates were rising. Now they are falling and overcapacity remains serious. No capacity buys in sight. The capex outlook is definitely worsening for next year. I believe that we will see declining BTB over the next few months with the ratio going well below 1. This, combined with reduced capital spending budgets for 2003 will drive stock prices in the group to new lows even though valuations based on book value are near historic lows. There probably be a good trading in the group over the next month. The price rise will not be sustainable. Over the longer term I tend to think that the SCE group is to some extent a victim of its own success. Finer geometries and 300 mm produce much more capacity more cheaply as a percent of IC revenue. It is a question of when end market applications appear to take advantage of the capacity. How long that will be, nobody knows.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next