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Wayne, I never really look at patterns. I just like it when an overvalued co. hits a new yearly high, especially if it is up a lot to do it. For example, I have thought that Capital One has been overvalued since it went to triple digits. But when it shot up recently to a new all-time high, it was time for me to jump on it. I know from a valuation point of view, that puts me in with the odds in my favor, assuming I am right about the fundamentals. Part of this has to do with the fact that my single best trading rule has been to buy puts on up days for the stock, and, if possible, the entire market, and buy calls (when the market is cheap) on down days. Of course, when I roll down or up, there is no way to follow those rules. But on one leg, I am pretty disciplined about them. |
