Cause it would make it an incredibly productive well.
The below ultimately from the oil drum:
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Historically the largest completely open well gushers have all maxed out at about 100,000 bpd and usually dropped off within a few days. The Lakeview gusher (California 1910) was estimated to reach 100,000 bpd, ran unchecked for 18 months, but over that time "only" averaged between 15,000 and 20,000 bpd.
Gulf of Mexico wells have never been capable of delivering the flow rates of the largest onshore wells in the Middle East, Texas or California. The maximum perforated and controlled flow rates have been about 40,000 bpd so it kind of requires a suspension of reality when people outside the industry start talking about flow rates of 70,000 to 100,000 bpd (and higher) through a well that does have restrictions. Even if the well was totally unrestricted, ie: no pressure reduction in the BOP, it is unlikely the well is physically capable of producing over 60,000 bpd.
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Next re. the 5000 bpd rate, thats not BP's estimate. They haven't made one. The 5000 bpd came from the USCG and NOAA and was an estimate based on how much oil was showing up on the surface initially. BP has only said the estimate is reasonable.
One more thing: Does the obsession with the flow rate mean if its a low number, its not an environmental armageddon? Does it have to be 70,000 bpd in order to be taken seriously? |
