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Biotech / Medical : Paracelsian Inc (PRLN)

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To: Richard Mazzarella who wrote (566)10/1/1996 12:45:00 PM
From: Rick Costantino   of 4342
 
I agree that this is great news. I'm not yet convinced to load up on
more yet. (Of course I already have a significant fraction of my
portfolio tied in , and I like the prospects of all my investments.)

There is still the chance for further downward movement,
especially if the market goes down in the near future.

I reiterate that I am very positive on PRLN and see it as a great long
term investment. However, I am spectical of their statements:

"...as we proceed with the projected launch of our first products
beginning in March 1997."

"This will provide the resources to carry out our objectives including
our clinical trials and the prelaunch marketing projects necessary
to introduce our products for AIDS and cancer patients."

If you read carefully, they never claim to launch the sales of AIDS or
cancer drugs by March 1997. There is absolutely no way that PN355 or
PN27,1 will be FDA-approved by then. The former is only in Phase II,
and the latter hasn't even been filed for an IND. The most optimistic
estimate would probably be sometime in 1998 or maybe late 1997 for
PN355 (if the data look spectacular).

I believe that they are either referring to their
Ah-immunassay kits, which will generate income in '97 or marketing
either of the above-mentioned drugs as a "dietary supplement". This
is an intruiging possibility, and I have no idea how commerically
successful they will be.

They will use the cash for clinical trials...this is the really great
news. If they can keep generating cash, they can conduct trials on
their own, and this increases the value of the company. I still think
an agreement with a large pharmaceutical firm is likely to
initiate Phase III studies.

Soon this month, I will be recieving a large chunk of my own company's
stock, which I will probably sell. I will then reinvest that cash,
and I am considering buying more PRLN. If I do, I'll post.

Rick
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