No, not Cyberken. Here is the basis for my growing confidence in the November outcome.
Electoral College: Bush 208 Kerry 227 Toss-Up 103
RasmussenReports.com July 23, 2004 report (his latest)
History: As of RasmussenReports poll for June 9th, Bush had 177 Electoral votes and Kerry had 227
As of the July 23rd, RasmussenReports, Bush had picked up 31 electoral votes while Kerry had picked up none nor had he lost any.
Net gain in the electoral vote for Bush is therefore 31 electoral votes since June 9th.
According to Rasmussen in his July 23, 2004--
If the Presidential Election were held today, Senator John Kerry would win 227 Electoral Votes, President George W. Bush would win 208 Electoral Votes. 103 Electoral Votes would be in the toss-up category.
These latest results reflect our review of state polling data from our national survey through July 15. While there were only minor changes in voter preferences from our surveys ending June 30, we have shifted five states in our projections.
Florida and Pennsylvania shifted from "Leans Kerry" to "Toss-Up." Maine and Michigan shifted from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Kerry." Missouri moved from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Bush."
And the Electoral College talley contains some interesting "inside" data which should give pause:
Bush has 208 Electoral votes Kerry has 227 Electoral votes
Bush leaning: Ark 6
NH 4
Oh 20
Va 13
Kerry leaning Iowa 7
Pa 21
Total leaning:
Bush 43
Kerry 28
Grand total:
Bush 208 plus 43 for 251
Kerry 227 plus 26 for 253
However: When the "even" states are awarded to the Year 2000 "winner", you get
Bush: 251 plus Florida' 27 for 278 electoral votes
Kerry: 253 plus Iowa's 7 for 260
CONCLUSION
Based on the latest polls, if the election was held today and if the "leaning" states continue to go in the direction they are now headed, and if the "Even" states wind up in the column of the party that carried the state in the 2004 election, then
BUSH WINS REELECTION WITH 278 ELECTORAL VOTES
AND KERRY LOSES THE ELECTION WITH 260 ELECTORAL VOTES
Total Electoral College Vote up for Grabs is 538
Latest polls continue to indicate a fingernail biting 2004 campaign with the winner still too close to call but with the trend still appearing to favor Bush's reelection. |
