Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Martin L. Robbins who wrote (5702)	12/10/1996 10:54:00 AM
From: E_K_S	of 42771

Hi Martin - <Am I missing something or is something terribly wrong?> No you are not missing anything here BUT I believe the analysts are WRONG in their estimates. Do you recall what the analysts estimates for INTC were 8 months ago? OR IBM two year ago? or MICRON last year? Each of the analysts errored on their estimates (guesses), especially on those more than a year out, to the bias of the prior year's trend. Some analysts last year had MICRON's estimate as high $17.00 per share! Reality was about $2.00. For IBM two years ago they had 1996 estimates at $2-$3 per share..they will earn $6 this year and $12 next year. AND Intel analysts actually put out sell reccomondations eight months ago at $55. Now today after a Morgan Stanley dinner they see their current estimates of $6.20 still too low by as much as 20%. Therefore, I believe the analysts are way..way behind the curve on their estimates for Novell. This is a good position for Novell because they can beat these estimates each quarter if they effectively implement their current Intranet/Internet business plan. EKS

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