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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands
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To: J.B.C. who wrote (57105)3/16/2010 12:39:55 PM
From: MulhollandDrive   of 57110
 

People struggling and markets going up are not always related IMO.

really good point..

remember the old saw "what's bad for mainstreet is good for WS?"

the simplistic translation to that is job losses equal stronger profits for corporations, and that most certainly has held true...so i believe that old saw has proven correct as far as it goes....

so we have corporate recovery while mainstreet is bleeding

of course, the question becomes, how long can this last considering the so called 'consumer' comprises 70% of our economy??? this is why the fed facilitated stock purchases and the 'stimulus' was meant to keep corporate earnings afloat...the general consensus is that the stimulus was a complete failure on the individual level (save some gov't "green jobs" that would not exist but for the govt and retaining some municipal paper pusher jobs)

i think a double dip is baked into this cake....does the current market price this in? i don't think so...am i willing to short on that reason? hell no...there will be no 'market swoon' on technical basis....any market swoon will happen because of the recognition phase of gov't intervention has completely and utterly failed...anyone betting on that will probably lose, not because they are 'wrong' empirically, but rather, the state will continue to do whatever it must to prop up this market.....for me, the question becomes how long can the fed run the printing presses and shift those dollars into equities via the investment banks before the gig is up? then and only then will you see the market give back it's gains..right now we are in this fed supported equity gain paradigm....witness the vix....
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