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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (57248)	5/7/2016 11:38:07 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) of 78673

Scripps Networks Interactive, Inc. (SNI) - sold out 4/2016 @ $67.27/share Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp. (NYSE: AP) - another 50% share sale on lousy earnings @ $18.27/share Calgon Carbon Corporation (NYSE: CCC) - small add on missed earnings 5/5/2016 @$14.87/share) Sometimes I wonder how efficient the market is. I first bought SNI based on your write up in 6/2015 and their FCF was what I liked. They made a small acquisition in Poland that is/was going to increase their FCF. From Bruwin's analysis, it's still a cheap stock when you compare it to something like a Comcast. I ended up selling my small position 4/2016 for a very small gain. The position was well underwater for most of the time I held it. I can only think that the market is discounting their future cash flows and/or subscription/cable model as a result of disruptive over-the-top Internet streaming. Several new services are popping up that are starting a-la-carte streaming service, the newest is Google. I am not sure how SNI's programming will fit into these distribution models but future revenues may/could be significantly lower. I sold 60% of my Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp. (NYSE: AP) Friday as they reported lousy earnings. They missed even after you adjusted for the one time losses from their recent acquisition. Maybe because it is thinly traded and most of the owners are long term institutional holders (ie Mario Gabelli), the stock only had a minor sell off. Certainly not an efficient market and/or I am missing something. It's losing money even after several management moves, now with more debt and falling revenues. I have over an 80% gain from my buys in 9/2015 & 12/2015 so booked those gains. I recently started positions in Trinity Industries Inc. (NYSE: TRN), Sotherly Hotels Inc. (NASDAQ: SOHO),Nobilis Health Corp. (AMEX: HLTH) and added to my Security National Financial Corp. (SNFCA) & Calgon Carbon Corporation (NYSE: CCC). TRN & CCC are selling below their GN valuations. HLTH is a GARP play growing revenues at over 30% while trading at a 12 PE. SNFCA is selling @ 60% of it's tangible BV and should surprise next week w/ earnings as a result of their growing mortgage servicing division (& origination o loans too). SOHO is a hotel REIT special situation w/ only 11 properties that buys undervalued properties, remodels/upgrades rooms & facilities (ie restaurants), then exchanges and/or operates them. Highly leveraged (16$ stockholders eqity & 84% debt) but each profitable deal moves their valuation needle. Management (so far) pretty good at flipping and/or upgrading (adding value) to thei assets. They also own a lot of common shares so their interests are inline w/ the shareholders. I am finding that the market is pretty inefficient in reflecting the 'real' value in several of the companies I own. That is especially true in the small and micro cap companies I follow. Many are thinly traded so you must exit (at least peel off some shares) on earnings day, when volume's trade many times higher than ADV. EKS

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