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Strategies & Market Trends : Canadian Options

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To: william smith who wrote (572)	6/15/1997 1:50:00 AM
From: andy	of 1599

You forget what the TSE contains ... a lot of gold and oil! What has happened to both of these components during the last great run-up. The critical break in oil below 19 US$ was a significant downdraft on the TSE and yet it the face of that the market is powering upwards. IMHO, this is the best historic market performance ever ... it can't last forever. Take the two sectors out of the TSE and then recompute the performance. Look at the incredibly low dividend yield, the incredible multiple sector earnings surges, big cap and mid cap strength and MOST IMPORTANTLY the international perception that there may in fact be some Canadian firms which are worthy competitors. The TSE will not outperform the DOW for a prolonged basis unless oil and gold sectors surge. That said ... higher oil and gold will lead to inflationary perceptions which should push up rates and pull the feet out from under the DOW and then ... you can guess the rest. Do you think the economist may have has some sarcasm in his comment ... maybe it was in his view obvious that this was coming?

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