Hello MO:
So in reference to
iionline.com
The total market is $30M. BTIM receives 37% of Abbot's revenues. Assume no cost for the product. No additional costs beyond the $3M annual burn rate. That implies a maximum of $11.1M revenue to BTIM, assuming 100% instant penetration, competitors (starch) all wiped out of the market, and $8M profit maximum. That would be $0.80/sh, which at 18 is a p/e of 22.5 for no growth. Realistically, the other starch solution competitors are not standstill firms, Abbot is unlikely to push this product in a major way, and if BTIM does prove there is an identifiable market niche, I suppose someone with a hydoxypropyl terminated starch could jump on the bandwagon claiming speciously that they avoid the long term concerns of introducing ethyl versus propyl compounds in the body (semiconductor industry, food industry experience). I have been trying to short more BTIM recently, but find no shares. The early bird gets the worm. BTIM's insularity and proprietary position seem unfounded to me.
So MO, what p/e do you think is appropriate and how much e do you anticipate and when?
Best regards,
m
I apologize for the re-edits |
