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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (5749)1/22/2004 9:27:35 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Some? I'd say just about every input item I can locate. It's getting pernicious.

you must not shop at WalMart. there are 156,000 SKUs there which contradict your perception.

another issue which people pushing the inflation argument need to look at, imo, is how Americans are supposed to pay for higher prices. they must either pay out of rising income or rising debt. this is a conundrum since income is not rising and debt has reached its limits. as you know, debt levels and service levels are at historical highs in a low interest environment. at the same time, wages are disinflationary and deflationary. market rates for many IT professionals have been cut in half. at the same time, we are losing quality jobs and growing on the low end only.

so, i would ask you, unless you think the housing boom can go on ad infinitum, how are Americans going to be able to afford the high-single-digit CPI you predict? the answer is they cannot afford it. the higher prices will cause demand contraction, which will topple the entire commodity house of cards (which is ultimately US demand supporting the investment bubble inside China).

since the world as a whole has record idle resources, these things look deflationary to me. the inflationary spikes you are seeing could vanish very quickly if the US consumer wigs out.

so, again: how are Americans supposed to pay for all this?
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