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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 50.59+4.9%Feb 6 9:30 AM EST

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To: Fred Fahmy who wrote (5752)11/26/1996 1:49:00 AM
From: Tiley   of 186894
 
Fred, Re: Intel vs competitors,

A lot of your points are well taken but it would not be prudent to overlook the competition. In my opinion, it would be unreasonable to expect Intel to continue to maintain Q4s margins (which should be obscene BTW) next year though it is equally unlikely to see a margin crash as a lot of AMD/Cyrix investors might be hoping/looking forward to. Bear in mind that the market will be shifting to the P-Pro (or Klamath) and P55C from the Pentium where the die sizes are bigger than the current Pentiums. The prices can still command a premium over cmopetitors but still have approximately the same limit as today (I think the CPU price range is typically $75-$1000 in 1000s). However, the volume should show decent growth so overall earnings growth (in historical range) should still be there. However, should the computer demand fall off next year, the first company to suffer will be Cyrix which might not be able to survive as an independent entity. Mind you Cyrix has enjoyed unexpected sales from 3-tier vendors or Independent system integrators as Intel has become capacity constrained. AMD is much more diversified and in a much better position overall. Intel will suffer a computer slump too (as will all of the computer/high-tech industry) but should easily be able to weather it.

- MJ
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