Looked at an NOK chart today for the first time in a while...
The three year weekly looks like three pearls on a string...
Each pearl is formed by the weekly bollies...
Each time the bollies pinch, NOK moves another pearl lower...
As the current pinch forms a new pearl, NOK bounced off the top bolly, and the 90 MA, just as it did back in April of 2010 and back in Feb of 2011
And just as it did in March of 2010 and Feb of 2011, the MACD is rolling over and pointing lower...
The bollies pinching, when share price is near the upper range... almost never an indication that the price will move higher rather than lower out of the pinch... and it doesn't look like its even close to threatening to do that in the current case anyway...
A similar pattern on the daily charts... provides more than one correlating pattern to be concerned about...
I'll guess its moving lower at least to test the lower bolly on the daily, down around $3... which is mid band on the weekly, and will admit to being surprised if it doesn't test $2 again as or shortly after ( with a couple of months) after the next "pearl" begins forming...
Seeing a decent double bottom around $2 forming up might be a pretty reasonable indicator of a pattern worth trading... with a bit more confidence that the chart patterns after that will provide more support than the chart patterns we see now are capable of...
But, then, there's the limit in the utility in TA... if what they're posting in their quarterly reports in that time isn't providing the sort of support that the market needs to sustain any of the expectations the charts suggest...
There are a couple of more neutral to positive factors in the charts, too, this time, which may suggest the next pearl won't duplicate prior experience and result in yet another major step lower as the new pearl forms up...
The other pearls formed at a pace of one per year, are each draped lower on the string... but, maybe the next one is resting on a table top instead of hanging lower on the string... but, its still very likely we'll see share prices "lower" soon, even if it is with movement occurring inside the pattern, even if the next pearl in the pattern itself isn't forming up enough yet for it to be saying that the pattern itself will be continuing lower... |
