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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: LindyBill who wrote (57691)8/3/2004 9:17:31 AM
From: michael97123  Read Replies (1) of 793754
 
Jay Severin, republican strategist, and talk show host was on IMUS this morning. I will paraphrase what he said but it is not good for Bushies.
1. He said that in a presidential reelection campaign where the main issue is referendum on the President himself, the voters were by definition "shopping" for an alternative. In elections of this type the undecided vote breaks 70% for the challenger historically.
2. All things being equal and this election continuing on current track, kerry would win.
3. He predicted that in order to upset the above applecart, bush himself would take the intitiative in running and participating in a dirty campaign, attacking and the implication was exaggeration and misrepresenting Kerry's career over the last 20 years.

This is from a guy who is a Republican. I had heard exactly the same analysis from Paul Begalla about a month ago. It is my view as well from anecdotal evidence i see. I also doubt that bush will be able to demonize kerry to the extent needed and these very attacks may excerbate his situation. Right now most americans see kerry as presidential enough. IMO only and exigent event or a kerry misfire or a teresa gaffe can do them in. Mike

PS perhaps a nader surge as well would do it on bringing troops home now if situation in iraq gets worse.
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