plenty of commentary lately about the upturn in foundry business being a good forward indicator for the semi sector. Perhaps we're robbing Peter to pay Paul
Interesting comment, AD. I would think that if Motorola permanently shuts down a line and transfers it to TSM in accord with its new fab-lite model, it ought to help foundry utilization while decreasing overall fab capacity, so it would be net positive for SCE. If, however, it is merely a temporary shutdown, then it is a simple transfer from fab utilization to foundry utilization, or as you put it, a "rob Peter to pay Paul" type zero-sum game.
Since foundries are arguably the best customers for AMAT's most advanced equipment right now, I would say that whatever is good for the foundry business is likely to be good for AMAT too.
The fabless model is definitely gaining traction. It lets ESS Technology, for example, focus on its core competency in designing DVD chipsets rather than in building, operating, and upgrading a fab.
If I were a theme player, I would play it for the LT by shorting the fabs and going long the fabless semis and the foundries.
Sam |
