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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: energyplay who wrote (57731)12/29/2004 2:01:00 PM
From: elmatador   of 74559
 
eplay the winner of the bet:

Message 19680534

EPLAY:
<<Anyone want to bet on how low USD /Euro goes ?

1.35 ? 1.50 ? 2.00 ?

I'm leaning towards an overshoot to about 1.80, maybe in early 2005, followed by a snap back to about 1.30....>>

ELKABONG:
<<At around 1.35 or thereabouts, Germany reaches the breaking point. Italy and Spain go to maybe 1.40, and France maybe about 1.42 but no more. Great Britain might last until 1.50, but I don't think so.

At some point, the Central Banks of Europe have to intervene in the currency markets to protect their own interests, vis a vis Japan. That point is likely to be somewhere under 1.50, maybe less. How much can they influence the currency markets? If Japan can be used as an example, then they (Europe) can prolong the nasties for as long as they desire, or until their own economies succumb to global currency pressures, or the US$ recovers, whichever comes first...>>

JAY
<<Ok, I will bite. I GUESS Euro 2004 high at 1.549, and back down to 1.30 :0)>>

ELMAT:
<<1:50 before Summer.>>

We all missed because we didn't count with the fiddling with the job numbers :-)

How about 2005? anyone brave enough?
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