Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 94.29

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11:44 AM EST

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To: jim kelley who wrote (57705)	10/15/2000 11:37:31 AM
From: gnuman	of 93625

Jim, re: Rambus earnings estimates- It's all kind of academic, isn't it? Even Edelstone is saying that DRDRAM is no longer the issue, IP validity is the name of the game. But looking at DRDRAM revenues, DataQuest has been forecasting 16% of $30 Billion DRAM revenues this year. ( $4.8 Billion for DRDRAM. And if I remember correctly, Harmon didn't take issue with that early in the year). So the question is, how many DRDRAM's are required to hit that number? This creates an enigma. What ASP do you use to calculate the number? There have been a series of posts with examples claiming that RDRAM price is rapidly approaching SDRAM. So let's try an ASP for the year of $24.00, ~1.5 X SDRAM. That comes out to 200 Million DRDRAM. Obviously, the results won't come close to that. It appears to me that Semico has the better forecast. We should get a clue Wednesday. JMHO's

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