Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 74.32

+0.9%

3:59 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: RetiredNow who wrote (57783)	2/21/2002 10:32:11 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) of 77400

Fair response re "why 15". Measures the confidence in your estimate. Let's zero in on the meat tho... If the company is generating profits, then we expect the profits to show up as increased equity. If they don't show up as increased equity then ask yourself which figure is wrong: equity, or your estimate of contribution to equity. Me, my bet's that the error is yours. So the fact remains that Cisco's equity only rose by 1.0 Billion in the last six months from all sources. Including shareholder contributions. So it's unwise of you to create an estimate that gives you a higher number. There is no question to this. As for the last five years (1996-2001), well the TOTAL contribution of the company's equity from its own actions was exactly 5.137 Billions according to the company's filings with the SEC. The rest has accrued through equity financing (stock options and other avenues). Which we now know we have to discount. It isn't an accident this number is published in the SEC filings for us. Most people don't even know where to look for it. Anyway, however you managed to come up with 3.67 Billions in one year is clearly in error and overstates past results by a factor of about 3.5 So clearly you forgot to factor out something very important. As for using past 5 year average, I think this is going to give you a low number (the company has grown). And presto, my 2 B$/year number is indeed higher by a factor of two. Finally, when I plug in 3.67 for year 1, my end number works out to 115 Billions in present value divided by 12.8 Billion shares to give 8.98 Billions. Not 12.98 Billions. So even if we agreed on the input number, (which we don't), we still wouldn't agree on the out put number. Oh darn... this could get complicated.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next