2013 Biotech Charity Contest Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : 2013 Biotech Charity Contest

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To: larryjoe who wrote (55)	1/1/2013 6:19:55 PM
From: ghmm	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 410

I agree about the blurb (or even better could be like DD and do a whole RMF :-)). You should have started but since you didn't I'll do the blurb more on why I picked them rather than why to invest as I only own 4 of the 10 I selected: ARWR - (Don't own in real life) Its a bet on them getting lucky with one of their programs or perhaps doing a more lucrative partnership (then the recent Shire one). Their EV is so low that wouldn't take much. CRME - (Don't own in real life) I lost about 90% on this last year so seemed like a good pick this year :-). The Australian documents about their IV drug were a bit disheartening to read (among other things questioned efficacy in some populations). I figured their IV drug is already approved in EU and should be worth something and their oral may need more work but should have some potential. They have a new CEO (who seems open to options) and it would seem a sale of the company is best for everyone. Considering their extremely low EV (probably negative) it could shoot up on a sale or re-partnering. DGCRF (CUR.TO) - (Don't own in real life) Their big asset was a recently approved PSA test which was under GenProbe's umbrella till Hologic acquired them. Sales haven't been great thus far. They also have another broad partnership. I haven't done a lot of DD on them my main point of picking them was a low EV and some worthwhile assets should be worth a lot more. DDXS - (Don't own in real life) They have a PLAC test for Lp-PLA2 and have been steadily increasing sales. They have a partnership with GSK (I believe) for a drug that unfortunately I think was rushed to Phase 3 and seems like a risky bet. I thought if they get a bit more traction people will start to notice and give them a nice multiple on sales. ENZ - (Don't own in real life) I don't follow much these days. A while back I took a look at their Therapeutics division and nothing overly impressed me but thought the way they are structured their other segments could fund their therapeutics development and keep them around cash flow break even. The problem is nothing impressed me in their pipeline at the time (don't know where they are at now). They did win a big patent suit recently. Just thought it was cheap. GENT - (Own) Thanks to a few posters from 2012 I did more DD and its my type of Biotech. Niche, rare (orphan) disease with little/no competition. I am convinced the drug works but also that old management was on the clumsy (or perhaps incompetent side) and new management (couple years) may only be a little better. The real kicker for me is the company is basically cash flow positive on compassionate use sales for an unapproved drug! HALO - (Own) I've sold and repurchased shares in the past year. The current bet is Herceptin sub-q gets approved, Mabthera sub-q gets approved and HyQ gets a green light with a small/short trial (perhaps even non-human). The real potential kickers beyond those obvious ones are the Mabthera sub-q data looked really interesting and the Roche PR had a mention of continuing to enroll patients. I think they could hit a p value for both ORR and CR. They likely won't have meaningful PEG-PH20 data in pancreatic but reading some preclinical articles (I know everything works in mice) I think the program has a lot of potential. I don't know how to value their Dermatology/Aesthetic medicine product but it conceivably could have a lot of potential in many indications (basically everywhere that xiaflex may work and potentially a lot safer) I believe the cellulite trial should have data in 2013. I don't put much value on their Insulin programs. ITMN - (Own) I think IPF is a huge market and will concede Pirfenidone is a weak drug. I wish the company would have/would do a few things better/different but think the market opportunity is considerable that even getting a fraction would be a meaningful for ITMN. Its too bad the BI drug also has GI side-effects (much worse too) as that would have potential (from both a combo therapy and being acquired by). NKTR - (Own) I like a few programs (wish 102 would have been/would still be partnered). TRGT - (Don't own) Its selling barely above cash and I basically thought its a (public company) bet on alpha 7 in AD.

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