Looks like my hypothesis may be correct. It would appear
Bin Laden is dead and that Zawahiri is still trying to create the impression that he's alive until he is able to consolidate his control.
Zawahiri has every reason to maintain the myth that Bin Laden is still alive. Militants will fight and die for Bin Laden, but they won't die for him:
Tapes suggest bin Laden is ill or dead, administration officials say
Originally published Friday, September 19, 2003
Knight Ridder News Service
WASHINGTON -- After examining new video and audio tapes of Osama bin Laden that were broadcast last week, U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded that the fugitive al-Qaida leader is probably ill or injured and could be incapacitated or even dead.
Three administration officials, all speaking on the condition of anonymity because intelligence matters are classified, said the videotape, which showed bin Laden hiking in the mountains, could have been made up to two years ago and that an audio track of bin Laden speaking was recorded separately, also some time ago, and overlaid on the video. The only recent recording was a second audio track, recorded by bin Laden's top lieutenant, Ayman al Zawahri.
The two audio tracks, one of bin Laden and one of Zawahri, were recorded in different locations and are of very different technical quality, said one intelligence official, suggesting that the two top al-Qaida leaders are no longer together after years of being virtually inseparable.
The officials all cautioned that it's impossible to draw any firm conclusions from the tapes, but they said the new material has strengthened the belief that bin Laden is ailing and that Zawahri may now be running al-Qaida or preparing to succeed a weakened bin Laden.
"I think there's a pretty broad consensus that bin Laden's probably alive but not well," said one senior official.
Some analysts have offered alternative explanations for the old tapes, including one holding that bin Laden may be healthy but so worried about his security that he's unwilling to allow anyone near him with an audio or video tape recorder.
Other intelligence analysts believe the tapes may indicate that Zawahri, an Egyptian doctor who became bin Laden's top aide when his Egyptian Islamic Jihad merged with bin Laden's al-Qaida, may be positioning himself to take an even more prominent role in the terrorist organization, or even to replace bin Laden as its leader. However, one analyst said, Zawahri "probably wouldn't be stepping up if bin Laden weren't down."
The officials said a takeover of al-Qaida by Zawahri wouldn't have much effect on the organization because bin Laden and his top aide have long worked closely to drive the United States out of the Middle East and to topple regimes in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Muslim world that they consider corrupt and dependent on the West.
magicvalley.com
Hawk |
