Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: elmatador who wrote (58019)	1/1/2005 1:20:50 PM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Your assessment is quite correct, and the Siemens story you gave is just the tip of the iceberg. What's troubling is the slow pace and stealth effects because they don't ring any alarm until it is already too late. Currently, there are plenty who want to come to US either for studies or higher technical jobs. And US most prestigious higher institutions are still able to attract some of the best potential minds out of China and elsewhere. But US paranoia may eventually hinder their hopes and aspirations when they get shut out of their pride and dream to participate in "sensitive" research projects. There will be a time when these PhD's prefer to follow their heart and mind, and do research elsewhere and accepting lower pay. Another aspect is when corporations would shift their R&D's elsewhere to get bigger bang for their R&D funds. This shift of the higher level R&D's is not happening yet (not dramatically) because there is not enough proven pool of brainpower and research labs elsewhere. There will be a time (I am thinking of China and India) when proven talent pools exist elsewhere, and the ensuing shift will be dramatic. When a long term program like this "China urged to scheme long-term strategy in science, technology - Message 20880780 " gets implemented and become somewhat successful (we'll see in 10 to 15 years), then a tectonic shift will manifest itself. Even if only half way successful, such in-house program will result in money making wealth creation that can generate greater and wider programs, and perhaps enough to attract the world's brains as well. Americans cannot see the urgency yet. We have become too complacent after becoming the biggest beneficiary of the two world wars that made the US an instant lone manufacturing country in the world for three decades. Such instant success gave us instant gratification mentality and we never feel the need for long term programs (except military domination that can only go so far until there is no more money to finance it where research will go in shambles because there will be missing complementary parts that never get researched). So I think this transformation and evolution taking place today is very interesting and seemingly a fateful destiny in progress. It's an eerie prospect to just a handful of people, those with long term forsights. The majority is still asleep in dreams of how things had been so good in the past five decades and are expecting the same for the future and oblivious to what's transpiring outside. The biggest unrealized problem is the inability to grow its own when it has relied so heavily on attracting the brains of the world. When there are alternatives and that brain magnet slows down, while the in-house replacement will hardly be of the same quality and class, then what? I think it will be interesting to see how world's research centers will shift and migrate in the next 2 decades.

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