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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 258.46-2.0%3:59 PM EST
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To: Bipin Prasad who wrote (5817)12/11/1996 1:12:00 PM
From: Dave M.   of 53903
 
If I keep it short, everything works. If I get long-winded, the system won't take my response!
Back to capex and DRAM cycle. The market grows at 66%/yr in MB.
Industry shrinking accounts for 26% eff capex, conversion from 1X density to 4X density acounts for 10%, wafer diameter increases, 11% . All on annualized basis. 126x1.10x1.11=1.54. So we have 12%/yr that has to be plain old new wafer capacity expansion(net). This is never met during the downturn cuz everybody stops spending capital$. Thus the recovery about 2.5 years later.

cheers dave mc
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