Weintraub "knows his onions."
California Insider
A Weblog by Sacramento Bee Columnist Daniel Weintraub
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August 24, 2003
The week in review, the week ahead
With 44 days to go until the election, we are really not much closer to figuring this thing out than we were when it started. Most public and private polls show Davis going down, with support for the recall gaining momentum. But one very prominent poll, by the LA Times, shows the recall question running neck and neck, leading by just 50-45.
Most public and private polls also show a two-man race, between Cruz and Arnold, in the battle to replace Davis. But the Times Poll shows Cruz with a big lead, 35-22.
In the coming week you will be hearing a lot of Republicans talking about liberal media conspiracies, and what they will see as an attempt by The Times to prop up the Democratic regime in Sacramento. I don?t think so. The poll may or may not be accurate. But having worked at The Times for 12 years, as well as at the Orange County Register and now the Bee, I have never seen any organized liberal (or libertarian) bias in the newsroom. It is true that many reporters are liberals, and that might color their view of the news or certain political figures. But mostly reporters just want to tell a good story. Davis would not be in the trouble he is in today if the press had not reported critically on his problems with the energy crisis, the budget and his pay-to-play fundraising style. And it's just not credible to claim that The Times would skew a poll to try to help the Democrats. If the poll is wrong, it's because telephone polling itself has become problematic in the age of cell phones, call-waiting and answering machines, and because this race, with its unique format and multi-candidate field, is going to be extremely difficult to assess.
The only poll I really want to see is the exit poll, which will interview voters as they leave the polls and should tell us a lot about who votes and why, and why they voted the way they did. Until then, I'm not going to believe anything I read, from any of them.
Having said that, it's no surprise that Cruz is showing in the mid-30s. California Democrats have a history of playing the field early in campaigns and then ?coming home? once their party leaders make clear what?s at stake. That?s exactly what is happening now. I expect Cruz to show in the mid-30s, possibly around 40, in the other polls as they roll out in the weeks ahead. I don?t think he can get much higher than that, and I think it is very possible that his final vote total will be several points less than is reported in the polls leading up to the election.
One reason: because voter turnout is going to be higher than most people expect, and very few of the last-minute voters, the occasional voters, are going to go for Cruz. They are underrepresented in the polls and will be until Election Day. Also there is the problem of voters who vote against the recall failing to vote for any candidate in the replacement election. This is always a factor in recalls, usually the tune of 10 to 15 percent of the vote. Even if it's reduced this time, Cruz could still lose several points this way. Another reason he might drop on election day, and one that you won?t hear much about in the mainstream media: I think there might be an unspoken ethnic factor. Just as in 1982, when LA Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American, was leading in the polls just before the election and then lost to George Deukmejian, I think some percentage of white Democrats will flee from Cruz at the moment of truth because of angst over immigration and the increasing power of Hispanics in California. If Gray Davis signs a bill allowing illegal immigrants to obtain driver?s licenses, this backlash will be even more likely. There is no way to measure whether this exists or how big it might be, but it?s out there, and it?s possible. It?s also possible that it will be balanced out by a surge of new Latino voters expressing ethnic pride, with new voters rushing to the polls to support one of their own. But both possible factors are just more reasons not to trust the polls.
Anyway, given the shape of the race at this moment, I expect Cruz to finish at around 37 percent, give or take a few points. Can Arnold, or any other Republican, top that? I think so. I still think it is Arnold?s to win or lose, depending on the kind of campaign he runs. If he nurtures the incredible natural excitement that is out there for him to tap, he will do fine. If he starts looking like just another politician, changing his stands on controversial issues, ducking questions and debates, attacking his opponents, then he will stall out. It might actually help him to be seen as the underdog. I think there was some resentment about his frontrunner status early in the race. People wondered what he had done to deserve such an exalted position. The media trained their guns on him. Now he can go about trying to earn the people?s trust, rather than taking it for granted. And if the next public poll shows him gaining on Cruz, Arnold can use that as part of his storyline. It?s possible, in other words, that Cruz has peaked too soon.
I think too much emphasis is being put on getting other candidates to drop out of the Republican race. Arnold was probably better off with both Simon and McClintock in, because they were splitting the conservative vote. It made them both look unviable. If they had both stayed in for another month, much of their support would have gradually drifted toward Arnold. Now McClintock has new fire and energy and might start to creep up toward Arnold in the polls. And that would change the entire dynamic of the race. Also, the talk about narrowing the field makes Arnold look weak. A strong candidate just runs his campaign and assumes that the people will listen and make the ?right choice.? A weak one has to force people out of the campaign so that voters have fewer choices.
Besides, I don?t think McClintock is dropping out, at least not anytime soon. He believes deeply in what he is doing, and believes that this is the moment to turn California around. He is running on 20 years of experience and focus on California fiscal and economic issues. This is his big chance, and he is not going to walk away from it. If, a few weeks before the election, he is at 10 and Arnold?s at 35, maybe McClintock will drop out and endorse him. But if he does so, it will only happen once he is convinced that he has absolutely no chance to win. And it will come at the moment when his leverage over Arnold is at its peak. That is not the case right now. If Arnold is smart he will put out positive feelers to Tom, not threats, and make McClintock know that when or if the time comes, Arnold will be grateful for his support.
As for the recall itself, I do sense that a little bit of the rage, a little bit of the anger, has subsided in the state?s political atmosphere. One consultant told me that voters in focus groups don?t express hatred or anger at Davis so much as embarrassment. It?s like having to fire a once-valued employee who has screwed up. You don?t relish it, you do it with a twinge of regret, but you do what you have to do. The discussion is turning more intellectual, more thoughtful, as people evaluate the replacement candidates and give Davis one last look before deciding whether he should stay or go. A rush of legislation in the next couple of weeks, on workers compensation, health care and other issues, might help Davis. But it also might make him look cynical, finally doing some things with a gun to his head that he wouldn?t ever do before. Or pandering to the interest groups whose support he needs to survive the campaign.
It?s still very early. We have not seen television ads from anyone other than Arnold, and we will. Historically in California, that?s where elections are decided. This one will be different, because of the buzz in the media and on the streets. But the ads will play a major role. And it?s premature to make any judgments before we see how they look. There will almost certainly be negative ads aimed at Arnold, by Cruz or by Democratic interest groups. How he reacts will be important. As the outsider with a bully pulpit of his own, Arnold has the opportunity to turn any personal attacks into an issue to use against his opponents, bonding with voters about the sleazy standards of modern political life. But if he is drawn into a tit-for-tat, the sleaze will simply ooze over onto him, as it did to Bill Simon a year ago. Cruz, meanwhile, has a chance to paint an optimistic image of his own, the poor kid who worked his way up the political system and now has a chance to make history.
It is possible, after all we have been through this year, that the election will come down to a couple of competing, generally optimistic, immigrant-based stories, one with its focus on individuals and small business, creating good jobs, turning California around from the ground up, the other calling for "shared sacrifice" and an increased role for government in helping those who have been left behind.
Posted by dweintraub at August 24, 2003 08:41 AM |
