From Briefing.com: 4:10 pm : Equities began today's session on a slightly lower note after the weekend failed to advance the budget negotiations. The talks have now entered the 11th hour, and the likelihood of a timely, comprehensive agreement remains distant. However, recent reports out of Washington indicated the two sides have made some progress on revenues, but the debate over spending cuts is scheduled to continue. Equities rallied broadly amid low volume and the S&P 500 finished higher by 1.7%. The materials sector outperformed after the Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI report beat expectations. The strong PMI reading was received as a positive sign for the country's economy, which in turn would be a positive for the future demand for basic materials. Technology stocks also outperformed and Apple (AAPL 532.17, +22.58) rose by 4.4%.
With 2012 coming to a close, we would like to take a minute and reflect on the year that was.
2012 proved to be a positive year for world equities despite a number of macroeconomic challenges. Markets across the globe registered strong gains as Germany's DAX and Greece's ASE General Index both added over 30%. Domestically, the S&P 500 registered a solid 12% gain, and was slightly outperformed by the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. The renewed worries regarding the weakening fundamentals of the Eurozone persisted into the summer and weighed on market sentiment. However, late-summer efforts from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve alleviated some of the fears, and propelled the markets to a strong second-half performance. The rally was cut short after the election, when the market focus turned to the budget debate, which lasted into the New Year. Below we summarize some of the key developments, which contributed to market sentiment.
Central Banks Maintained Accommodative Policy Course, With Diminishing Returns
- Taking a look at past QE operations from the Fed, the first QE program saw the S&P gain nearly 70%. During QE II, the index gained 23%. So far, following the announcement of QE III--which was unveiled in September of 2012--the S&P has lost 4% as concerns over the Fiscal Cliff weighed. Taking a look at Fed's actions in 2012:
- January 25th - The Fed said it would keep rates low through 2014.
- June 20th - The FOMC extended its 'operation twist' program until the end of 2012.
- September 13th -- The Federal Reserve announced its decision to increase policy accommodations by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 bln per month.
- December 12th -- The Fed announced ‘Operation Twist' will be replaced by a Treasury purchasing program with an initial rate of $45 billion per month. The key interest rate was expected to remain at exceptionally low levels until a target unemployment rate of 6.5% is reached.
- Looking ahead to 2013, the Fed voters will change at the end of this year and will become slightly more dovish overall.
- Incoming voters include, Charles Evans, Eric Rosengren, James Bullard, and Kansas City Fed's Esther George.
- Others rotating off include Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco Fed President John Williams.
Politics Added Volatility to Markets
- U.S. Presidential Election
- Key indices rallied into the election and the S&P 500 advanced nearly 1% on Election Day, only to fall 6% in the two weeks following.
- The loss of optimism post-election was attributed to questions whether a Democratic president and a split Congress can strike a budget deal to avoid going over the fiscal cliff.
- Fiscal Cliff Arrived at Year's End
- Following the U.S. presidential election, the attention turned to the budget debate. The automatic spending cuts and tax hikes scheduled to take place if no budget agreement is reached became known as the 'Fiscal Cliff.'
- The markets maintained their upward bias through the bulk of the debate, but the final week of the year resulted in a sell-off as the likelihood of a timely compromise diminished.
U.S. Stocks Led by Homebuilders and Financials
- Housing was a bright spot in the broader economy; as such homebuilders saw robust returns and the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) surged 49%.
- Among major individual builders, Lennar (LEN, +87%), PulteGroup (PHM, +172%), D.R. Horton (DHI, +49%), Standard Pacific (SPF, +119%) all saw outsized gains.
- Despite the observed uptrend in housing data, it should be noted that housing starts, new, and pending home sales remain below historical averages entering 2013. In addition, foreclosure rates remain elevated.
- Financials Outperformed Despite Debt Worries and some notable trading issues
- Financial shares beat the market with the XLF ETF gaining 24% for the year versus a 12% gain in the S&P 500. The better than expected recovery that we discussed in housing contributed to the gains. The financial sector saw strong returns despite a handful of challenges.
- JP Morgan London Whale Trade: After the bell on May 10, the U.S. financials were rattled by the news indicating JPMorgan Chase (JPM) had significant mark-to-market losses in its synthetic credit portfolio. It took nearly 5 months for JPM to recover.
- Knight Capital (KCG) Trading Glitch and Sale: On August 1st, a trading glitch at KCG caused nearly 150 stocks to behave erratically. Just before the end of the year, KCG and GETCO Holding announced a merger at $3.75 per share in cash. Knight Capital (KCG) shares finished the year lower by 71%.
- Investors Focused on the Largest Tech Stock - Apple
- With years of strong performance and solid fundamentals, Apple (AAPL) was favored by investors in early 2012, and it had become a top hedge fund holding.
- Apple surged nearly 65% through the first three quarters of the year, and marked its all-time high in the $705 area.
- After climbing to its all-time high, the stock tumbled 30%, but still managed to finish the year 24% higher.
- The notable slide came amid numerous factors including disappointing product launch, stepped up competition and the once-rich profit margins have compressed through the year.
European Markets Saw Strongest Overall Performance
- Despite continued uncertainty and ongoing debt problems, broad Euro region equity averages returned more than 15% this year.
- The spring reignited worries regarding Greek solvency. Despite the mid-summer uncertainty, the Greek ASE returned 33%, and was the best performing global index.
- Concerns about Spain followed Greece; Spain's IBEX fared much worse with a 5% loss on the year.
- The country's heavily-strained banking system caused the 10-yr benchmark yield to cross above 7.00% before a bank recapitalization package was approved by the European Central Bank.
- The approval of the bank recapitalization combined with ECB's Outright Monetary Transactions helped ease the pressure on yields, which slipped back below 7.00%.
Asian Region Fared Well With Strength in India (+31%), Japan (+22%) and Hong Kong (+23%)
- In Japan, Shinzo Abe was elected prime minister on the platform of promoting economic growth and bringing the country out of its economic malaise.
- Mr. Abe had previously held the post in 2006. The country's new prime minister vowed to defeat inflation and promised to increase government spending. The Japanese market cheered the plans and the Nikkei registered the bulk of its gains in the final six weeks of the year.
Looking Ahead to 2013
- As mentioned in Briefing.com's Market View (published 12/17/2012), A year has made a lot of difference for equity investors in a good way. Unfortunately, we are not as hopeful about the market outlook entering 2013. Once again, we can point to three factors in particular driving our perspective:
- Economic growth is decelerating
- Fiscal austerity is just beginning in the US and there is too much complacency about its outcome
- Earnings growth estimates are too high
Those factors may not conspire to produce a negative return for the stock market in 2013, yet they present real obstacles for achieving another strong gain and raise the importance of managing against downside risk. Fiscal austerity will bite, as we have seen in the eurozone, political friction will persist both here and abroad, and earnings growth is unlikely to measure up to currently high expectations.
2013 is loaded with potential to be a fundamentally disappointing year. That might not translate directly in terms of stock market returns given the Fed's influence, yet investors should take care nonetheless to manage against downside risk.
Wishing you the very best in 2013!
-The Briefing.com TeamDJ30 +166.03 NASDAQ +59.20 SP500 +23.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2051/1.49 bln/491 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2651/692.2 mln/434
3:30 pm : Crude oil trended higher as investors tracked progress of fiscal cliff negotiations that are nearing the year-end deadline. The energy component rose to a session high of $91.95 per barrel and settled at $91.78 per barrel for a 1.1% gain. Despite today's advance, oil lost about 7.1% over the year.
Natural gas fell deeper into negative territory and closed at its session low of $3.35 per MMBtu with a 3.5% loss. Still, it booked a gain of ~11.3% for the year. Precious metals also advanced during today's pit trade on the last-minute fiscal cliff negotiations.
Gold popped to a session high of $1681.00 per ounce and settled at $1676.00 per ounce for a gain of 1.2%, ending the year about 7% higher.
Silver rallied to a session high of $30.47 per ounce but pulled-back slightly as it headed into the close. Still, it booked a 0.9% gain for the session, and ended the year ~8.3% higher as it closed at $30.25 per ounce.DJ30 +99.42 NASDAQ +46.65 SP500 +16.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1871/1169.5 mln/649 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2457/403 mln/575
6:01AM JA Solar regains compliance with NASDAQ minimum bid price rule ( JASO) 4.16 : Co announced that it has received a letter dated December 27, 2012 from NASDAQ Stock Market notifying the Company that it has regained compliance with the minimum bid price of $1.00 per share requirement for continued listing set forth in NASDAQ Listing Rule 5450.
Cypress Semiconductor (CY) announced that the International Trade Commission has agreed to review the entire Initial Determination issued by Chief Administrative Law Judge Charles Bullock in the pending patent case between Cypress and GSI Technology. Cypress has asserted that GSI SRAMs infringe multiple Cypress patents. |
