Dale K.,
I think this is just a straightforward and well-earned case of performance-induced investor apathy. I do not think anyone cares too deeply how CFMT's quarter or fiscal year went (they report on the 14th). The song remains the same.
We are so conditioned to seeing significant losses and small (albeit growing) revenues/backlog, that we can't get too excited. I would probably listen to the 8/24/99 conference call, add-in a touch more revenues, layer in some increased litigation expense, and talk about the fact that the cycle should start to get better soon for "the smaller players, like CFM." Gross margin should improve, Carolin will talk about some amorphous wins in Asia (while highlighting the Dresden follow-on), and everyone will walk away with the fact that they will loose more money next quarter. "We would like to see more of the order activity translate into orders," will almost certainly be muttered. "Increased litigation expense vis a vis the DNS and FSII/YieldUP suits, offsetting the decrease in the STEAG expense."
I still hold that CFMT does not have the scale to do business in today's WFE market. There is a strong possibility that this 'recovery' comes and goes without CFMT earning a dime. Litigating their IP seems reasonable on the surface, but at some point in the foreseeable future (over the next year?), shareholders need to be shown financial returns. In three years, they may still be fighting what will then have become the last war (i.e., Full Flow and its tech).
As a shareholder, I am growing tired -- and I think the lack of interest in the stock reflects a similar lethargy.
--Duker |
