Slate and all:
FWIW, I'll put my $.02 worth into the need to start looking for valuation models.
In brief, I believe that at that state of development and implementation that we are at today, the specifics of a valuation model can do little more than provide us with a means of trying to comprehend the upper and lower limits of where the stock could go, if acceptability is in the realm that we all have the gut feel it is.
But, more importantly, it is necessary to discuss and begin to rationalize and document such models NOW, so that when the concept is implemented and we start getting more real world data, we can then figure out where the reasonable limits are for short term and long term price appreciation.
IMHO that at this point, the feeling as to whether the stock will appreciate significantly (doubling, or so) from its current price is clearly a matter of faith in the concept and in the company's very capable management. But to satisfy one's self of where the stock can go once it gets to such a point and once real world experience and reaction can be observed, will require as at least one source of input an analytical framework. The beginnings of such a framework should begin now, taking advantage of the company's models and trying to rationally build thereon, and the analytical models should constantly evolve as the real world determines where we are (both implementation-wise and as it determines whether the market sees us as an internet company, a hardware/software supplier, an AMEX/Mastercard/Visa or whatever).
Although at this point numbers and parameters must be somewhat speculative, discussion will get us to the point that when real data starts to come around we'll be in a better position to try to understand where we are and where we are going.
I guess that's all just a long way of saying that I agree that trying to conceptualize and update one or several models is a good thing on which to be working.
Just my opinion.
Steve
PS - I also think that at this point we really don't even understand how widespread the application of the system could be, if it is accepted, for use in non-Internet, non-network applications such as tools, appliances, equipment and systems with CE controllers, etc. |
