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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 268.87+4.6%Jan 2 9:30 AM EST
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To: willcousa who wrote (58924)1/16/2002 1:13:09 PM
From: runes  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
Intel's 300mm efficiency -

...There are a lot of good insights on this thread regarding the ramifications of Intel's one line statement about reducing capex because of 300mm efficiencies. Allow me to sumarize and enhance...

DIRECT BENEFITS OF 300 mm
1) 125% increase in die per wafer (more than double the # of chips) (just based on area increase)
2) Increased utilization of Si area - some of the wafer area is lost because square die don't fit well in a circle (wafer). As the wafer size increases, you can do a better job of minimizing the "lost" silicon.
3) Better yields - the edge die are always the lowest yielding because of a variety of edge effect. As the wafer size increases, the % of edge die decreases by a factor of 1/Diameter.

INDIRECT EFFECTS -
1) Higher production density means reduces construction costs/die - 300mm equipment is, on average, probably only has an 80% larger footprint for the 125% increase in raw chip output. So the construction overhead is reduced by 30%. For the advance technology "bridge" tools the effect is more dramatic.
2) Lower cap ex cost/die - Likewise equipment costs have not gone up in proportion to the die output. I haven't paid attention to pricing of 300mm but I would bet that the increase is less than 50% vs the 125% die increase.
3) Higher labor costs per die. 4" wafers used to travel in boxes of 50, 6 and 8 inch in boxes of 25. Now 12" wafers go in boxes of 12 or 15 (They're just too heavy!). On top of that the $ loss/scrapped wafer is doubled so the economics are shifting towards hiring higher skilled operators. (Both driving forces to go further with automation)

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER -
...and you have a huge cost advantage for going to 300mm but only when more capacity needs to be added. For most companies with excess capacity, it makes no sense to shell out more $s until the excess capacity starts to be absorbed. Even more so for DRAM where they have put off going to the 0.13 um technology.

...all of which makes for a gloomy outlook for the semi equip industry. But fear not, there are some bright spots...
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