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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: Katelew who wrote (59460)	4/15/2008 7:39:32 PM
From: JohnM	of 542430

National poll numbers are reflecting voter preferences in states that went heavily for Obama but won't go Democratic in the fall. At some point, these votes have to be discounted to some degree, don't you think? I'm only guessing, Kate, I know absolutely nothing up close. But my own guess is that those national polls are one of their data points. My guess, again, is that most of the undeclared supers have either made up their mind who they support or have decided to support the pledged delegate winner, barring some major exogenous event. The ones who are in political office will, obviously, want the best vote getter at the top of the ticket. Those national polls will help some; more local polls--statewide, House district wide would be even more revealing. But I suspect the national stuff plays a role. Much like the old adage about computer buying for IT executives. Buy IBM because even if it's wrong you won't be blamed for making a bad decision. If they decide to back a candidate on the basis of the national numbers and justify it as such, they have used a standard everyone understands. And is defensible.

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