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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (58753)6/27/2017 3:40:06 PM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (1) of 78744
 
Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN) - sold 30% @ $27.75/share
American Railcar Industries, Inc. (ARII) - 2nd Buy targeted at/below $36.50/share

My first Buys in TRN was in 5/2016 at prices between $16.90/share-$18.30/share. I sold my high cost shares as the GN valuation model has TRN fairly valued at $26.28/share.

My thought was to put the proceeds into ARII w/ another Buy at/below $36.50/share. The GN valuation model shows ARII to be 10% undervalued w/ a fair value of $39.37/share. Unfortunately, ARII has rallied the last two days +5%.

ARII also pays a higher dividend just short of 5%. Will wait for my entry point for ARII. I already have one Buy for ARII on 11/2018 at $38.50/share. I still think the TRUMP infrastructure plays has legs but may/could take longer to get started w/ Congress stalled on passing any new legislation.

American Railcar Industries (NASDAQ:ARII) (hereafter "ARI") is the third largest manufacturers of railcars in the US. ARI is owned and controlled via a 56% stake by famed activist investor Carl Icahn. Icahn last purchased shares in 2011 at around the $15 dollars a share mark, a very slight premium to a book value. Since Icahn's last purchase of ARI shares the company has had a distinct and dramatic transformation, all against the backdrop of railcar industry resurgence. This meteoric rise has lifted shipments of railcars nearly 400% and ARI's share price as much (412% since January 4th 2010).

Position is small for ARII. Also looking at The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)but that is only 3% undervalued according to the GN model.

EKS
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