Brilliant post by "EDSHORE", RG's Broadcom board...
Brilliantly done, EdShore. Many thanks.
Fully concur with you. For those fortunate enough to scoop up quality issues in the near term, handsome rewards 3-5 years from now?
di
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ragingbull.lycos.com
>>>the "bottom line" on today's GREENSPEAK!
my take:
general econ is STILL STRONG though weakness due to backed-up biz inventories will take a few months to clear out...
roughly 50% of purchasing mgrs indicate that they have not
purchased/implemented all the "productivity increasing technology" into their operations that they can/intend and will have to, to remain competitive...THIS OBVIOUSLY BODES WELL FOR THE CONTINUED PURCHASE/IMPLEMENTATION OF THE
HIGH-TECH SECTOR (particularly computer related technology)GOING FORWARD...look for a STRONG REBOUND in this sector
a few months down the road as biz inventories are reduced!!!
...basically we hit an economic slowdown (like in traffic on an expressway) but WE WILL BE GETTING MOVING "up to speed" in the not too distant future...
couple the preceding with a "large mutual fund mgr" (25 bil) whom I heard on CNBC this morning - his take:
tech is near a good bottom to start accumulating for this
resurgence that will start in a few months...
.......
so on the rate cut: I expect "1/2" pt by 30 Mar...NOW WHAT'S IMPORTANT is that we GET THE CUT not so much WHEN!
......
My thoughts on MARKET PLAYS:
I see THREE main feeds:
LONG TERM INVESTORS:
the mkt is low enough, particularly in the "tech sector"
which I believe will again DOMINATE mkt plays (but with SOLID COMPANIES like (msft, intc, brcm, jnpr, adbe, altr, yhoo, csco, sunw, ibm, orcl, ...you know, the BIG NAMES who really propel the Internet and the secondaryspill-over tech and biz enhancing technology companies...MINUS the "hyped fluff dot.coms" that never did reall generate EARNINGS...
SIDE LINE MONEY: (large mutuals and some indiv investors)
...there is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines...
pretty soon I think it WILL START COMING IN...and causing the rebound...just takes a few to make an early move...
we're getting into the TIMING...afterall MOST PEOPLE/STOCKS HAVE ALREADY DISCOUNTED:
THE FACT...that's EARNINGS REPORTS for the NEXT FEW QTRS will be less than ENCOURAGING...but that's only for the
NEAR FUTURE...
as the effects of the already REDUCED INTEREST RATES in the pipeline since JANUARY reduce "forward biz/cap costs"
and strong probability of another "1/2" pt cut soon...
couple that with "reduced inventories" going forward AND THE ECON CYCLE SHOULD REBOUND starting summer/fall and be STRONG AND SOLID going forward from THEN ON ...especially since we've eliminated a lot of "fluff net stocks" that skewed the tech mkt potentials...
I REALLY SEE THIS AS THE "2ND INTERNET WAVE"...leaner and more productive than ever...
DAY TRADERS:
I think we're pretty much near the "bottom" for most tech stocks...but I think the PLAY ACTION here
WILL BE "BUSINESS AS USUAL" meaning:
volatile, rapid moves on rumors, news tidbits UNTIL the
"sideline money" starts making it's move...then we should be STEADY SLOW "UP 2...down 1" up 2 down 1...and so on
as the INTERNET ECON rebounds for the "2nd Net Wave"
bottom line:
long term: I don't think you have to worry at these TECH PRICES, and it LOOKS GOOD GOING FORWARD (particularly for the NET tech sector)...and that "sideline money" will start coming in down the road...the exact start I don't know but I expect the analysts working for these guys have already priced in the "less than rosie earnings" for the next couple qtrs or so.
day trading: back and forth, maybe some new lows, BUT SOLID RECOVERY FOR "BIG CAP TECHS" down the road...
...so that's how I see the next few months...
prices will remain volatile with NEWS, DAYTRADERS shaking up their favorites...
the media helping/hyping ALL THIS...with what most already KNOW..."earnings will be disapointing" for the next few qtrs...
to me THATS OLD NEWS already...
you INVEST in a stock long-term BECAUSE OF WHAT YOU SEE IN THE "FUTURE" ...and I SEE THE "2ND WAVE REBOUND"...
as a "daytrader" have fun in the "back n' forth" hoopla
of the swings...
but remember theres an UPSWING BUILDING after this
ECON PAUSE...so start planning for the UPSIDE!
EDSHORE <<< |
