CTC, Let's take a look at what motivated the discussion:
Someone claims, "Industry analysts estimate the overall PC business will grow in the middle to high-teens in percentage terms this year. Dell's revenues have been expanding at least three times as fast for several years." AND, someone claims that DELL's marketshare is 8%.
So, the conclusion is that DELL has taken marketshare hand-over-fist AND that opportunity is practically boundless, reflected as the residual 82%. [Several people on the thread have supported this conclusion.] HOWEVER, the "Industry analyst..." statement compares future PC growth with past DELL performance. The following data have not been provided:
a) historical PC demand;
b) which PC segments have historically grown the fastest;
c) within the 15% prediction, which segments stand out as higher/lower growth;
d) which PC segments has DELL historically addressed;
e) which PC segments will DELL address going forward.
IF given the above, we can begin to explore this thing called "market share." We can identify whether 8% marketshare has anything to do with reality. And, how DELL may be subject to the 15% growth rate.
In essence, that's "why" I mentioned Lotus. [The usage of "paradigm shift" may have been a judgment error, and I can see how this could be misleading.] The take-home message was that if we view markets as monolithic, we improperly define opportunity (and its duration).
Now, if we say that DELL is not constrained to the "PC market" we can dissolve the entire argument. HOWEVER, this becomes a matter of convenience. That is, we like to believe in (and profess) the DELL 3x advantage; yet, if the advantage becomes clouded we can escape to higher ground, greener pastures.
Since I didn't assert the 8% marketshare, 15% growth rate or 3x DELL advantage, I have no particular allegiance. I do feel that if we're to use such figures, we should at least understand what we're discussing.
Regards,
Alan
ps. Congrats on another fine qtr! |
