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Strategies & Market Trends : BCRX: Target practice for shorts
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To: Wolff who wrote (59)8/27/1999 12:03:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche  Read Replies (2) of 96
 
That's real brave. You bring a load of crap here, the post is *yours*. Don't blame it on someone else.

Neuraminidase inhibitors work. FDA is obviously accomodating. The market caps of lower-tier biotechs have been depressed for years, and now there is a clear understanding that (1) the BCRX molecule has demonstrated efficacy in preliminary testing, (2) pivotal testing for this class of drug can be completed in a single flu season, and (3) the BCRX molecule has dosing advantages (oral, 1X/day) relative to the Glaxo and Roche projects.

If Peter's post is correct and the sliding scale does reach mid-teens, that means that you could be staring at about $40 million in royalty revenues by 2001. Let's allow for 33% dilution in the interim...... let's assign a reasonable PE of 40..... that's about $80/share.

So.... how is that complement inhibitor project going?

That's back of the matchbook analysis, by someone who doesn't have a position in the stock and has not taken a close look at it, taking about 5 minutes.

Daytraders who short biotechs after a prolonged hit on research premiums -- "it went up 3X so it has to come down" -- are playing a foolish game.

Did you pick $18 for an short point like some have indicated in this thread? If so, on what basis? Did you even bother to read the 10-K?
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