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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 267.08-0.4%3:59 PM EST
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To: JSLyons who wrote (59861)2/5/2002 12:54:32 PM
From: runes   of 70976
 
JSLyons - TRKN

First - my comments about TRKN is in the context of the other names I listed which I refer to as "could-have-been-but-never-were" in the semi equip arena. They all have had good technology and prospects but have never managed to break into the big leagues (OK - TGAL was big league but blew it big time).
...My primary dig at them is that they are at a severe competitive disadvantage because of their size. Their lack of size is a barrier to entry because no fab wants to risk their technology on an unproven player. Add to that the predatory tendancies of the big guys along with the prospects of IP blackmail (GGNS is being entangled by ASMI right now) and their chances of success are limited.

With regard to Trikon (which I haven't really looked at in a while). Yes, their balance sheet is in good shape for their size. But 49 mil in cash and $150 mil in market cap isn't going to get them on a rapid growth curve. IF they hit on a winning technology, they will be a takeover candidate. So far that hasn't materialized.
...On top of that they licensed most of their technology back in '98 to LRCX and AMAT. Specifically the PMT source, flowfill and PVD. They had to do it in order to keep afloat and at the time I suspected that they were abandoning the mainstream chip business. This leaves the smaller secondary markets - hard disk heads, optoelectronic etc. that the big guys ignore.
...Yes, there is money to be made there. But I don't expect the the kind of sustained growth that the mainstream semis enjoy.

...Still I could be wrong and there may be some gems to be gleaned there. Good hunting!
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