| 52 wk low theory: Interesting, but you'd think the 3220 area would at least provide a speed bump - April and May low, early Nov 1999 weekly high. Below that, we get the high 2900s - and the Wayback machine takes us full circle to late October and the beginning of the 99-00 Bull move, which already bids fair to qualify as the Great Emily LaTella (or, for younger fans, Nirvana) Rally, as in "Never mind!" It's also, of course, the anniversary of the Great Crash. In other words, if things slow down just a little bit, the high 2900s might end up fulfilling the 52 wk low theory, and wouldn't that be painful, scary, and embarrassing enough? If things slow down a bit more, under that theory a re-test and minor overshoot of 3200 might suffice. On the other hand, to use the kind of thinking that Robbie Stephens is still advertising (and surely helped get us into this mess), it's a new time, full of new possibilities. Or, as Datek still puts it (mainly referring to overnight changes in their margin and short-selling restrictions, I believe): "The rules are changing." So, we can't completely exclude the possibility, especially with help of the exogenous variety, that even heavy congestion in the high 2000s would just make for another speed bump, but otherwise odds would seem to favor a long pause as the market and the world and the Fed take a new look at whatever the heck is really going on by then. |
