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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.485

-4.5%

2:49 PM EST

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To: Puck who wrote (6004)	7/1/2000 5:58:26 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 34857

Puck, stock prices today are notoriously disconnected from future income although they are supposed to predict them. That's because future reality is notoriously difficult to predict. There always seem to be some weird exogenous events which change our plans, not necessarily to our advantage. Notwithstanding that, there will actually be a future and it will NOT be connected to today's stock price [other than rare exceptions]. That's why it's so easy to make a lot of money in the stock market. One just needs to be better at predicting the future than competing investors. So anybody who uses stock prices today as a guide to the future is in for a very nasty surprise. The reason the Q! stock price has fallen to $60 is because there are more sellers than buyers. Few sellers would have much idea about the things which will affect Q! income and share price in 5 years. They will say "Huh?" if you mention 724 Solutions. They will say "Duh!" if you mention Eudora as the browser/email for the WWeb world [recall that browers are big time in the Web and caused a very big USA lawsuit]. WirelessKnowledge will leave them blank. Condor will be meaningless. They will have little concept about Globalstar other than it changed it's name from Iridium and went broke. They won't know about Cinecom and all the other fun games Q! is playing in digital media. It's true that most buyers would have similar ignorance and many will buy because they bought the ThinPhone and it's great. They also heard that CMDA can connect anywhere on earth. So the current stock price is a result of the ignorant selling to the confused. Which is why you should not use the stock price to do your thinking for you. Nokia has a chance to be a primary supplier of subscriber devices for the amazing world being created by Q! but so far, has not succeeded in gaining dominance, high margins and otherwise transferring their excellent brand image and GSM achievements to the CDMA world. Nokia is now trying to rectify that situation. Paradigm Shift Happens and Nokia, like Microsoft, has recognized that and will move swiftly into this new field. Microsoft is also trying to get into it! It is a crowded field because just for the right to sell, companies bid $35bn for UK 3G spectrum rights which shows the profits they think will derive from 3G. Nokia stands aside at their peril. Maurice

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