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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: jim A who wrote (6019)12/19/1996 5:45:00 PM
From: Rich Young   of 42771
 
Jim, You always seem to have some pretty strong opinions as to the direction of the stock. I have to admit that so far you've been pretty accurate, but to the best of my recollection, you haven't given any substantive reasoning for your opinions. Do you have any particular technical basis, similar experience, what?

Also, you keep trying to tie the performance of the market to the performance of this stock (or vice versa). Over the last few weeks and months, it should have become apparent that this stock does not participate in the general market movement AT ALL. There are strange unseen forces at work here. We've seen 50 point swings both ways and the stock has barely budged. News (positive or negative) does not affect it. In fact, Novell could be the next classic "flight to safety" stock (just kidding).

Please give us some insight as to the basis for your statements. So far the only credibility you have is that you've guessed right for the last few weeks. I, for one, would like to know if you are really right or just lucky.

Personally, I think we're pretty close to lows right now (gut feel). I think the 8 3/4 low at the end of October was circumstantial due to mutual fund selling for year-end purposes. We are still experiencing year end selling for other institutions and individuals & after the first of the year should see a reversal. We might drift a little more intraday between now & then end of the year, but historically Novell has participated pretty well in the January effect (again, all gut feel with some experience mixed in).

Rich
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