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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Brumar89 who wrote (604342)3/20/2011 3:46:18 PM
From: J_F_Shepard  Read Replies (1) of 1576593
 
This what I said.... If I had used Hubbert's name you would have come back with dozens of RW blogs trashing it....so I stand with the concept I am using:

Message 27248372

""If I thought you understood what Gaussian means, you might have a dig, but you don't. I used Gaussian to describe the oil curve since the parameters of oil depletion and the resulting distribution strongly parallel other phenomena that are modeled using a Gaussian.... I'm familiar with it's application to diffusion in semiconductors....ie a LIMITED amount of diffusion source results in a redistribution curve that looks exactly like that...I've compared it to a limited amount of oil being consumed (distributed) over time.. That concept may be arguable but in my mind I feel comfortable with the analogy. But I am impressed that you made the effort to learn what it is....."

www.gulfpetrolink.net/Peak_AlHusseini.pdf -

"To examine some of these issues, Bartlett (2000) developed an analytical method which does not
consider the consequences of the price of oil, nor the law of supply and demand. He explained that
economic factors are of significance but only as short-term determinants of the course of oil production
in the future. His model, however, allowed him to determine the values of the three parameters
that characterize the Hubbert-like graph (Gaussian distribution) that best fits the conventional oil production data, both for the USA and the world. The three parameters are: (1) the estimated ultimate
oil recoverable reserves (EURR) as represented by the total area under the Gaussian curve; (2) peak
year; and (3) half-width of the Gaussian curve."
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