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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (60531)3/17/2018 12:39:19 AM
From: Spekulatius   of 78802
 
Tobacco - I never owned them before but recently bought some IMBBY, but decided to sell again after some consideration. My biggest concern is the competition from Vapor e-cigarettes. These things really start to get traction as a less harmful and less smelly solution to obtaining a “hit”, Apparently the best experience is from Juuless product, which is an upstart that has gotten to almost 50% market share with what seems to be a superior product,

I think the e-cigs will perhaps replace the tobacco products quicker than thought and I don’t think the profit margins will remain the same. Since innovation is not the strength of most cigarette companies, I think the market shares could get reshuffled as well. I am out since I expect the market to be disrupted.

Come to think about it, there was one company that was in tobacco manufacturing and might be a really good short. In any case, while the tobacco companies look optically cheap, I think they will become value traps, due to replacement risk from e-cigs.
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