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Non-Tech : Iomega Thread without Iomega

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To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (6061)1/18/1999 3:36:00 PM
From: HRP   of 10072
 
Ken,

The average per share profit predicted for Q4 98 by analysts that cover Iomega is $0.05. The analysts publish these numbers based upon their conversations with Iomega and I consider them to be conservative as of the time they are made. You may disparage their judgement. However, for myself, this is a reasonable starting point for making a personal judgement.

Since the time of the estimates what significant, uncontemplated favorable or unfavorable events have occurred that will increase or decrease the per share earnings. I count two. The estimates did not anticipate that Syquest would withdraw from the market during the fourth quarter leading to a significant increase in profitable Jaz sales. (Add $0.01) Also, Iomega announced the sale of more than 100,000,000 Zip disks during the quarter. I am on weaker ground here but I believe the fourth quarter contribution to this volume of high margin product was much higher than contemplated. (Add $0.01.)

There were other factors, some favorable and others unfavorable, such as sales of new product and ramp up costs that I'm estimating as offsetting each other.

My model (I only have one) shows +0.07 for the quarter and wishes your models good luck!

hrp
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