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To: Andrew who wrote (607)	2/25/1997 1:42:00 AM
From: Andrew Vance	of 17305

Thank you for your well wishes and yes, it really was that cold. There was absolutely no exaggeration on the temperature. Scout's honor! You must be very happy with both your INTC and HWP. Both have done real well and IMO will continue to do well. As a novice, follow BYDS on paper and investigate the market for its prospects in the Pacific Rim. I hear it is big in Japan but that the stronger dollar could be a negative aspect to its 1997 business plans. IDTI and CRUS are two IC manufacturers that are "all dressed up waiting to go somewhere". Business will turn on for both and when it does, we will see similarities to AMD who was also all dressed up and no where to go in their Fab 25. As soon as they had something to put there, a nice ride from 12 to 36 took place in short order. IC fabs are a strange situation. Expensive as all get out to construct and bring on line. A very large cash drain when they are being depreciated and do not have the manufacturing absorption. Once you fill them up, they become cash cows and ATM machines churning out big bucks. CRUS will turn on real well as soon as the market gets off its butt relative to the Laguna chip and some others. Why else would the Cirrent employees be given huge bonuses for bringing up and qualifying the Orlando joint venture on schedule or beating the schedule. They wanted that Fab ready to go for something. Same thing for IDTI. They busted their butts to get this fab expedited to completion. Either both companies are stupid or there is more there than meets the eye. BTW- if they are looney tunes, so is INTC since INTC is going full steam to bring the Dallas facility on line. Watch WFR as the lead sled dog. Their lead times are more real time relative to the IC industry and equipment sector. As they start reporting good numbers, all others will begin to follow suit a few months or a qtr or two down the road. WFR is going to be my barometer of the industry. As their fortunes improve, so will the rest of the sector. For those who need more than one sign, Look at DPMI and PLAB as secondary indicators. As their fortunes rise it indicates a plethora of new designs which means more wafer starts which means more production capacity used which results in more fabs coming on line which means more equipment for these fabs. And all that means is more profits for those invested in this sector. These are my personal tea leaves for reading consumption.

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