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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.28

-1.0%

Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (6114)	10/12/2002 6:14:10 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	of 95525

RE: "poor visibility" Most of the lack of "visibility", recently, occurs when managers attempt to address the question, "When will the recovery begin in earnest?" On the other hand, "visibility" has increased in the sense that companies are meeting or going slightly lower than forecasts and forecasts for future quarters are tending to be flat or down a small percent. In this kind of environment, it is possible that leading SCE suppliers will have very good "visibility" about a pretty flat 2003. Certainly, the BTB will be somewhere around 1. It is difficult to know if orders for the next 12 months have fallen faster than current, "push out" affected revenues. With current low valuations and the scenario described above, I believe that SCE price movements will be determined by TA factors without much contribution, either way, from FA factors. We will know in the next few weeks.

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