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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 256.89

-1.2%

Dec 31 3:59 PM EST

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From: runes	3/4/2002 1:40:48 PM
	Read Replies (5) of 70976

Too far, too fast? I have to admit that I am surprised by the strength of the move on Friday. Looks like a combination of events - market bottoming last week, NVLS confirming that the recovery is continuing - slowly, and a surprisingly strong ISM (a spike or is this real?). Of those the ISM number is the only one which might justify the strength of this run. Going forward - I expect the current run to go for a couple more days. Part of the driving force now is short covering coupled with possible margin calls tomorrow. Another part is catch-up: laggards like CSCO and SLR are starting to move partly from rotation ala StanX and co. and partly from bargain hunting. NAS should top out before 1900? But on Thursday is the INTC mid-quarter report. Expectations are that this report will not be so good. Some of INTC's problems come from AMD's continued market penetration. But it also represents the overall strength of the PC market. Any unusual weakness here could trigger a wave of tech selling. Longer term - "March 19th is Semi EQ B2B which I am betting will show improvement. My gut tells me that the last one was disappointing because of the 3 month moving average. If I am right the orders will show a significant uptick. And then we reach the end of the quarter and the subsequent earnings CCs. Pay close attention to the reporting dates - good news comes quickly and bad news takes forever. So I am taking profits now and building some cash but I don't think that I will stay on the sidelines too long.

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